Seasonal modes of dryness and wetness variability over Europe and their connections with large scale atmospheric circulation and global sea surface temperature

The relationship between the seasonal modes of interannual variability of a multiscalar drought index over Europe and the large-scale atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly fields is investigated through statistical analysis of observed and reanalysis data. It is shown that the seasonal modes of dryness and wetness variability over Europe and their relationship with the large-scale atmospheric circulation and global SST anomaly fields differ from one season to another. During winter, the dominant modes of dryness and wetness variability are influenced by the Arctic Oscillation (AO)/North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Scandinavian pattern, the East Atlantic pattern and the East Atlantic/Western Russia pattern. The spring dryness/wetness modes are influenced mainly by the AO, Polar/Eurasian patterns and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation conditions. The phases (positive or negative) and the superposition of these large scale variability modes play a significant role in modulating the drought conditions over Europe. During summer, the atmospheric blocking is one of the main drivers of dryness and wetness conditions, while during autumn dryness/wetness conditions variability can be related to the NAO or with a wave train like pattern in the geopotential height at 850mb, which develops over the Atlantic Ocean and extends up to Siberia. It is also found that the response of the dryness and wetness conditions to global SST is more regional in summer, compared to the other seasons, when local processes may play a more important role

Large scale circulation patterns associated to seasonal dry and wet conditions over the Czech Republic

Ponencia presentada en: VIII Congreso de la Asociación Española de Climatología celebrado en Salamanca entre el 25 y el 28 de septiembre de 2012.[ES]Este trabajo analiza la relación entre las condiciones estaciónales extremadamente secas y húmedas en la República Checa y los patrones de circulación de gran escala. El índice estandarizado de precipitación y evapotranspiración (SPEI) se utiliza para cuantificar las condiciones de humedad. El SPEI fue calculado a partir de los registros mensuales de temperatura media y precipitación total de una densa red de 184 estaciones climatológicas para el período 1961-2010 en la escala temporal de un mes.[EN]This paper analyzes the link between the extremely dry and wet conditions over the Czech Republic and the large scale circulation patterns, at seasonal scale. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is used to quantify the moisture conditions. The SPEI for one month lag was calculated from monthly records of mean air temperature and precipitation totals using a dense network of 184 climatological stations for the period 1961-2010.The research on drought conditions in the Czech Republic was supported by S grant of MSMT CR and projects 6046070901 and OC10010

Assessing the changes in drought conditions during summer in the Republic of Moldova based on RegCM simulations

We assess the changes in drought conditions during summer in the Republic of Moldova based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) calculated from monthly precipitation data simulated by the regional climatic model RegCM3. The RegCM simulations were conducted at a horizontal resolution of 10 km in the framework of EU-FP6 project -CECILIA. The domain was centered over Romania at 46°N, 25°E and included the Republic of Moldova

CHANGES IN THE ANNUAL CYCLE AND SEASONAL CHARACTERISTICS OF PRECIPITATION IN THE DANUBE RIVER LOWER BASIN

Abstract: Precipitation is one of the main climatic elements which determines the availability of water resources and has considerable impact on different aspects of human activity. The present analysis is based on monthly precipitation totals from 22 meteorological stations situated in the Danube River lower basin both in Romania and Bulgaria. These stations have been divided into three groups by their geographical distribution and the peculiarities of the study area (western, central and eastern). The aim of this paper is to provide detailed information about the characteristics of annual and seasonal variability of precipitation in this area, focusing on annual cycle and linear trends. The investigated period is 1961-2007. To reveal the characteristics of temporal variability of precipitation, two 30-year reference periods have been considered

CECILIA Regional Climate Simulations for Future Climate : Analysis of Climate Change Signal

Regional climate models (RCMs) are important tools used for downscaling climate simulations from global scale models. In project CECILIA, two RCMs were used to provide climate change information for regions of Central and Eastern Europe. Models RegCM and ALADIN-Climate were employed in downscaling global simulations from ECHAM5 and ARPEGE-CLIMAT under IPCC A1B emission scenario in periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. Climate change signal present in these simulations is consistent with respective driving data, showing similar large-scale features: warming between 0 and 3 degrees C in the first period and 2 and 5 degrees C in the second period with the least warming in northwestern part of the domain increasing in the southeastern direction and small precipitation changes within range of +1 to -1 mm/day. Regional features are amplified by the RCMs, more so in case of the ALADIN family of models